Prices as of the 2 October 2026 ICE settlement. Sugar is moving daily; figures below will have changed.

Introduction

Raw sugar settled at 19.93 US cents per pound on 2 October 2026, up 5.2% on the session and about 21% above its level a year earlier, according to Trading Economics. In February, nearby ICE futures had bottomed at 13.34 cents. The move from that low to the current price is roughly 49% (our calculation from those two figures, which come from different data providers).

August alone delivered the strongest monthly gain in raw sugar since October 2010, CNBC reported, and the market reached an 18-month high at the start of October. For buyers of ICUMSA 45 who priced contracts in the spring, when ICE No. 11 sat near 13.7 cents (as noted in USDA’s annual report on Brazil), the market now looks very different. Here is what moved it, and what could still move it.

What Happened: From a February Low to an 18-Month High

After bottoming in February, nearby ICE raw sugar traded between 13.39 and 16.10 cents until August, according to Barchart’s analysis. It then broke higher, reaching 18.66 cents on 28 August, the highest since April 2025. New York sugar posted a 17-month high in early September and went on to set an 18-month high in the first days of October, with prices continuing to climb.

Why It Rallied: Three Drivers

1. Brazil’s mills are favouring ethanol. Higher energy prices amid the Middle East conflict have made ethanol more attractive than sugar, according to Reuters and Barchart. Brazil also approved a higher ethanol blend in gasoline. USDA’s spring forecasts, made before the August rally, already reflected the shift: a 2026/27 mix of 48% sugar and 52% ethanol, against 49.5% and 50.5% the season before. They projected Brazilian sugar production down 3.0% to 42.5 million tonnes, and exports of 33.6 million tonnes (raw value). The market has since moved past those numbers — StoneX has revised its total Brazilian sugar production forecast down to potentially below 38 million tonnes, Reuters reported on 29 September.

2. Brazil’s crop is behind, and the weather is the reason. Centre-south Brazil had its wettest winter in more than 100 years, according to the University of São Paulo, delaying the harvest. Production in the first half of September fell 41.6% after rain slowed cane deliveries to mills, as reported in early October. Michael McDougall, a senior sugar analyst quoted by Reuters, said further downgrades are possible given the rainfall expected in centre-south Brazil in October.

3. Weather risk is spreading, and the global balance has tipped. The US Climate Prediction Center said in July that the El Niño pattern would likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. Barchart reports that it is expected to curb rainfall in producing regions such as India and Thailand, while the International Sugar Organization also pointed to expectations of lower beet yields in the European Union because of adverse weather. The ISO now projects a 2026/27 global deficit of 200,000 tonnes, after an expected surplus of 1.1 million tonnes in 2025/26. In June, trader Czarnikow had already cut its 2026/27 estimate from a 1.4 million tonne surplus to a 100,000 tonne deficit. India’s announcement of duty-free raw sugar imports added to the change in sentiment, the ISO said, as quoted by CNBC.

The Counter-Signal: Why the Rally Could Stall

The clearest downside risk is not fundamental but positional. Barchart reported that funds’ net-long position in New York sugar reached its highest level in three years in early September, and warned that an excessively long position could exacerbate any price downturn. A crowded trade can unwind quickly without any change in the supply picture.

The second risk is the production mix. A Reuters analysis published on 29 September found that weather, not price, is now deciding how much sugar Brazilian mills produce. Cane harvested wet carries high moisture, which suits ethanol better than sugar, so mills have not raised the sugar mix despite the price jump. “The sugar mix is only not going up because of the weather,” said Fabio Meneghin of Veeries Consultancy. Marcelo Bonifacio Filho of StoneX put it this way: “In the end, we are not looking anymore at market prices to guess the production mix in the final tail of the crop. The focus is the climate.”

That cuts both ways. If conditions dry out and mills shift more cane to sugar, the supply response would work against the rally. If wet weather keeps them from harvesting all available cane, GSX Commodities said, prices could go higher still.

What This Means for ICUMSA 45 Buyers

ICUMSA 45 pricing typically follows the raw sugar benchmark plus a refining and white premium, so a move of this size feeds into offers. Practical implications:

1. Expect shorter offer validity. With daily moves of 5% possible, quotes that held for a week in the spring may now hold for days. Ask suppliers for the validity period in writing.
2. Consider staged pricing rather than a single decision. Buyers with needs into 2027 can split volume across several price-fixing dates instead of relying on one entry point. This is a risk-management approach, not a price forecast.
3. Lock the structure, not just the price. Confirm grade, packaging, Incoterm, payment instrument (LC or DLC) and shipment window in the contract. When prices move quickly, ambiguity in these terms is where disputes start.
4. Follow the signals that are driving the market. UNICA’s fortnightly crush reports, the sugar/ethanol mix, the CFTC positioning data and El Niño updates are the indicators the analysts quoted above are watching.

Key Specifications: Brazilian Sugar

Conclusion

Raw sugar has moved from a February low to an 18-month high in under eight months, driven by energy prices that favour ethanol, a Brazilian crop held back by the wettest winter in a century, and a global balance that has swung from surplus to deficit. The same weather that supports prices is also what could cap them if mills shift cane back to sugar — and a record fund long position means the market has room to fall on sentiment alone. For buyers, the practical response is discipline: shorter commitments, clear contract terms, and attention to the few signals that actually move this market. Prices quoted here are indicative and will have changed by the time you read this.

Sourcing ICUMSA 45 From Brazil?

AgriTrade Connect supplies ICUMSA 45, Crystal and VHP sugar of Brazilian origin, FOB Brazilian port, on spot or long-term contracts. Send us your volume, destination port and target shipment window, and we will come back with specifications and terms.

• Email: info@agritradeconnect.com
• WhatsApp: +55 17 99735-4202
• Website: agritradeconnect.com/sugar/

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